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6:05.

As my CFI, Matty told me (he's a Continental express F/O, soon quitting): "I could do that job half-asleep; often do."

I wouldn't be surprised if that's true for many regional pilots, worked to death and up really early.  It's not an excuse, it's a possible contributing factor to the accident.

It was reported that the aircraft came down a mile from the airport. I am still not quite understanding:
3500 feet of run way, possible less, he would not have backed up to the thresh hold and minimum of 5800 feet for the take off role. Someone care to enlighten me please?


Matt

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When they saw the end of the runway nearing, they probably pulled up on the yoke and became airborne at a low airpseed, stalled, and went down a little less than a  half-mile from the runway, and skidded to their resting position.

Once again, this is speculation.  It is also possible (and even probable) they simply never got off the ground and went through the fence.  Horrible accident either way.

I've always had the quirky habit of glancing at the DG as I turn on to a runway..

I'm not second guessing.. Just thought I'd add that..

The flight recorders are already in Washington D.C. and are being analyzed.
At 6 AM there could have been a little fog, common in this area as humidity often rises to 90-100% at night.

im not one to speculate - but i feel the final report will probably reveal something like this:

the runway layout for LEX is like an X sort of

there is only one taxiway out to runway 22 and it passes through the runway 26 threshold.

picture this    -    as the CRJ approached runway 26 they probably held short of 26 either because of arriving traffic, or were told to do so by tower or perhaps they had check list items to contend with - whatever the reason may be.

Tower says "Comair 5191 can you make an immediate departure for arriving traffic?" as many towers are known to do.

5191 says "Affirmative."

tower says "Comair 5191 your cleared for immediate takeoff runway 22 no delay"

comair 5191 taxis onto the runway they are holding short of (RWY 26) just as we have all been acustomed to doing so many times before.

Runway 26 which was worn to a dull grey finish as compared to the fresh glossy black top on runway 22 would have stood out any other day alerting the crew to their error - except for one thing - runway 26 was freshly re-surfaced and had the brand new runway look of runway 22.

now i dont know if it is true but i have heard that runway 26 has a slight rise in the middle, as some runways often do... and you cannot see the departure end of the runway because of the rise in the middle. meaning they wouldnt have noticed the distance to the end of runway 26 being shorter than usual because they CANT SEE THE DEPARTURE END over the hump. at least not until it's too late.

as they crested the slight hill in the middle of the runway they were greeted by the sight of the runways end rapidly approaching. too fast to abort - to slow to fly. instinctivly they try to bring her off the ground. since they are faster than Vmu they break ground... but now they are on the back end of the power curve... she would never have a hope in hell of leaving ground effect, and would gain no more speed than she already had. moving in excess of 120 to 130 knots she plowed through the trees at the end of runway 26 and impacted the ground 1/2 mile off the end... covering the distance in about 10 to 12 seconds.

i would think weather was no factor as it was never worse that morning that 6 miles visibility and a 5,000 foot ceiling according to metar / taf reports.

just my humble opinion

Since we're speculating:


RitterKruez's scenario sounds pretty feasible to me..

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It probably could have clawed its way into the sky.. but the first stage of clawing, where you actually HOLD the plane down in ground-effect to gain airspeed, took it through a tree or two   

Watch the video, interesting!



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14552288/