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F-16 Down over Iraq! (Read 6188 times)
Nov 28th, 2006 at 4:52pm

Isak922   Offline
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http://www.f-16.net/news_article2066.html ; Sad  Undecided  Cry

Hopefully the pilot survived, but by the looks of it he didn't
 

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Reply #1 - Dec 4th, 2006 at 1:22am

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If they can't find him, he's hopefully not being touchered by the terrorist Cry or he ran away is hiding, it's very strange to have a "unknown" where abouts. I really want to know why the aircraft crashed, it said the F-16 was going up and down erratically, but what was the cause?
 

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Reply #2 - Dec 4th, 2006 at 1:33am

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It went down not too far from where I am Sad

I've been paying attention to it it ever since it happened.
 
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Reply #3 - Dec 5th, 2006 at 3:41pm

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Quote:
It went down not too far from where I am Sad

I've been paying attention to it it ever since it happened.



I noticed some time ago the Army Corps of Engineers logo you're using.  I assume you're Army?
 

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Reply #4 - Dec 5th, 2006 at 8:36pm

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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 5th, 2006 at 3:41pm:
I noticed some time ago the Army Corps of Engineers logo you're using.  I assume you're Army?


Yep, I'm a combat engineer in the Army Cool
 
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Reply #5 - Dec 6th, 2006 at 9:29am

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Quote:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 5th, 2006 at 3:41pm:
I noticed some time ago the Army Corps of Engineers logo you're using.  I assume you're Army?


Yep, I'm a combat engineer in the Army Cool



Cool, very cool!  Stay safe!

I'm about to finish We Were One, and you combat engineers definately get the job done!    Cool
 

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Reply #6 - Dec 6th, 2006 at 12:44pm

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If it nosedived into a field - surely he would have time to eject.
 

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Reply #7 - Dec 16th, 2006 at 10:16pm

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I hope the Army have found the remains.
Which reminds me 15 years ago a Mig 21 did the same thing during a Pratice mission they only found some Human parts quite macbare but thats life. Cry
 

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Reply #8 - Dec 17th, 2006 at 6:08am

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I believe they found evidence suggesting the possibility that insurgents took him Cry
 
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Reply #9 - Dec 19th, 2006 at 11:42am

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I believe they found evidence suggesting the possibility that insurgents took him Cry



sucks, that likely means his head will be seperated from his body.  that's very saddening.   Cry

long before daniel pearl was murdered, i saw this video of chetchins killing a russian soldier.  they didn't chop his head off, they slowly carved his head off like they were carving a turkey, while the hapless soldier was still alive.  the website owner warned us that this is what was in store.
 

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Reply #10 - Dec 19th, 2006 at 11:47am

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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 19th, 2006 at 11:42am:
Quote:
I believe they found evidence suggesting the possibility that insurgents took him Cry



sucks, that likely means his head will be seperated from his body.  that's very saddening.   Cry

long before daniel pearl was murdered, i saw this video of chetchins killing a russian soldier.  they didn't chop his head off, they slowly carved his head off like they were carving a turkey, while the hapless soldier was still alive.  the website owner warned us that this is what was in store.


Yes, I put that video at the top of the list of the most horrific things I have ever seen.  Embarrassed

Matt
 

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Reply #11 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 10:50am

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How insanely counter-productive is that!  (with regard to the horrorfying video mentioned, which I have not and won't see).  Here's the message the terrorists are sending:  "What ever you do, DO NOT SURRENDER.  The only thing you can do to avoid having your head carved like a turkey is to fight to the death.  Don't ever give up because your fate is sealed.  So kill as many of us as you can and maybe you'll survive."

Geez.  I know these guys are a bit on the cracked side but that's rediculous.  I understand (though obviously don't agree with) using terror to achieve political ends.  The whole "stop supporting Isreal or we'll crash more planes in to your buildings" thing.  But torturing soldiers who surrender doesn't send this message at all.  All it says is that a soldier must never surrender, he must fight until dead.  The Japanese used the same tactic during WWII.

There's a certain wisdom in treating surrendered combatants humanely.  The army you fight will know that if they surrender they will be protected.  Heck, treat 'em like kings!  Thank them for surrendering.  Perhaps the word will get out and you'll have more surrendering.  Kinda like the first Gulf war.  Do you think there would be mass surrenders if the Allied forces were torturing everyone who surrendered?  No, they'd fight until dead.  And the war would have been longer and bloodier.

Sorry for straying off topic...
 
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Reply #12 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 12:40pm

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Chris_F wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 10:50am:
How insanely counter-productive is that!  (with regard to the horrorfying video mentioned, which I have not and won't see).  Here's the message the terrorists are sending:  "What ever you do, DO NOT SURRENDER.  The only thing you can do to avoid having your head carved like a turkey is to fight to the death.  Don't ever give up because your fate is sealed.  So kill as many of us as you can and maybe you'll survive."

Geez.  I know these guys are a bit on the cracked side but that's rediculous.  I understand (though obviously don't agree with) using terror to achieve political ends.  The whole "stop supporting Isreal or we'll crash more planes in to your buildings" thing.  But torturing soldiers who surrender doesn't send this message at all.  All it says is that a soldier must never surrender, he must fight until dead.  The Japanese used the same tactic during WWII.

There's a certain wisdom in treating surrendered combatants humanely.  The army you fight will know that if they surrender they will be protected.  Heck, treat 'em like kings!  Thank them for surrendering.  Perhaps the word will get out and you'll have more surrendering.  Kinda like the first Gulf war.  Do you think there would be mass surrenders if the Allied forces were torturing everyone who surrendered?  No, they'd fight until dead.  And the war would have been longer and bloodier.

Sorry for straying off topic...



The problem is that terrorism works. At the end of the day all "conflicts" involving terrorists have to a small extent ended up with the government/leaders appeasing them to a certain extent to get an end to the conflict.


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Reply #13 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 3:27pm

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expat wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 12:40pm:
The problem is that terrorism works. At the end of the day all "conflicts" involving terrorists have to a small extent ended up with the government/leaders appeasing them to a certain extent to get an end to the conflict.


Matt

Yeah, like I said, I understand (but disagree with) the political terrorism thing.  It does work (unfortunately).  Even if all it does is draw attention to the terrorist's cause.  I didn't know nearly as much about the US's involvement in various issues affecting Muslim countries before 9/11 as I do now.  I don't agree with the terrorists methods, but they are effective.

The thing I don't get is the torturing prisoners thing.  There's no message there.  There's no political gain.  All it does is solidify your opponent in their fight against you.
 
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Reply #14 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:09pm

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Chris_F wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 10:50am:
How insanely counter-productive is that! (with regard to the horrorfying video mentioned, which I have not and won't see). Here's the message the terrorists are sending: "What ever you do, DO NOT SURRENDER. The only thing you can do to avoid having your head carved like a turkey is to fight to the death. Don't ever give up because your fate is sealed. So kill as many of us as you can and maybe you'll survive."

Keep in mind that
1: These guys are being paid for each kill / damaged vehicle... The more media coverage they get (read: the messier the kill), the more money they get paid.
2: That getting your head chopped off in their eyes is seen as a honourable way to die, especially for an infidel.
3: In Iraq, the leading figures of the insurgency are former secret service and saddam-era death squads... these guys don't know any other way to tell their message.

Quote:
The thing I don't get is the torturing prisoners thing.  There's no message there.  There's no political gain.  All it does is solidify your opponent in their fight against you.

They still think that they have influence on public opinion in the west... not knowing that most of the messy stuff is censored anyway. Basically it isnt even newsworthy here anymore.

Quote:
There's a certain wisdom in treating surrendered combatants humanely.  The army you fight will know that if they surrender they will be protected.  Heck, treat 'em like kings!  Thank them for surrendering.  Perhaps the word will get out and you'll have more surrendering.  Kinda like the first Gulf war.  Do you think there would be mass surrenders if the Allied forces were torturing everyone who surrendered?  No, they'd fight until dead.  And the war would have been longer and bloodier.

in 1991 that worked becaus they just didnt want to fight. in 2003 every platoon got a secret service detachment included and everyone showing signs of surrendering was shot through the head (some of that happening has been filmed in the first weeks). The ones who did surrender most likely got rid of their secret service guys before waving the white flag.

In the current situation the whole prisoner treatment thing isnt working anymore... in their thoughts, surrendering equals getting tainted... which leads to getting killed by their own guys because they departed their faith (or being forced to see them kill your family first and then you afterwards).
 

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Reply #15 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm

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expat wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 12:40pm:
Chris_F wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 10:50am:
How insanely counter-productive is that!  (with regard to the horrorfying video mentioned, which I have not and won't see).  Here's the message the terrorists are sending:  "What ever you do, DO NOT SURRENDER.  The only thing you can do to avoid having your head carved like a turkey is to fight to the death.  Don't ever give up because your fate is sealed.  So kill as many of us as you can and maybe you'll survive."

Geez.  I know these guys are a bit on the cracked side but that's rediculous.  I understand (though obviously don't agree with) using terror to achieve political ends.  The whole "stop supporting Isreal or we'll crash more planes in to your buildings" thing.  But torturing soldiers who surrender doesn't send this message at all.  All it says is that a soldier must never surrender, he must fight until dead.  The Japanese used the same tactic during WWII.

There's a certain wisdom in treating surrendered combatants humanely.  The army you fight will know that if they surrender they will be protected.  Heck, treat 'em like kings!  Thank them for surrendering.  Perhaps the word will get out and you'll have more surrendering.  Kinda like the first Gulf war.  Do you think there would be mass surrenders if the Allied forces were torturing everyone who surrendered?  No, they'd fight until dead.  And the war would have been longer and bloodier.

Sorry for straying off topic...



The problem is that terrorism works. At the end of the day all "conflicts" involving terrorists have to a small extent ended up with the government/leaders appeasing them to a certain extent to get an end to the conflict.


Matt


Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.
 

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Reply #16 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:40pm

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In Iraq, there are several players that comprise what we call the "insurgency"  There's the ex-Ba'thists, aligned with foreigners loyal to Al Qaeda on one side.  These are pretty much the Sunnis.  Then there's the Iranian backed Shi'ites on the other side.  They are both fighting the Coalition forces, and fighting each other.  Al Qaeda and Iran both benefit from instability in Iraq.  So each are doing their level best to see to it that's what occurs in Iraq.  It is misleading to suggest that "secret-service" types are running the show.  They may be involved, but they are merely players in the bloodletting.
 

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Reply #17 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:48pm

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Speaking of foreigners, I just finished a book on the battle of Fallujah.  The Marines encountered evdicence of foreign fighters from 19 different countries as well as numerous torture rooms.
 

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Reply #18 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 5:35pm

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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:40pm:
In Iraq, there are several players that comprise what we call the "insurgency"  There's the ex-Ba'thists, aligned with foreigners loyal to Al Qaeda on one side.  These are pretty much the Sunnis.  Then there's the Iranian backed Shi'ites on the other side.  They are both fighting the Coalition forces, and fighting each other.  Al Qaeda and Iran both benefit from instability in Iraq.  So each are doing their level best to see to it that's what occurs in Iraq.  It is misleading to suggest that "secret-service" types are running the show.  They may be involved, but they are merely players in the bloodletting.

Secret service = Ba'athists... and the main backing force of the sunni insurgency because of their level of organisation... most of the structure is still intact even after the rise in revenge killings just after the fall of the regime. These guys have fast access to large sums of money (maybe more than Al Qaeda has directly available in the area)
Shias have a far lower level of organisation and are just as likely to go after each other as that they are fighting sunnis or any foreign force.

You tempt me to list ALL the major factions and their supporters, so here it comes
  • Turkmens (north): Seem to be supported by Turkey but only when they need them... usually to make trouble with Barzani (Kurds) as they live in the same area.
  • Kurds (north): De-facto independent state. Gets money from expats and smuggling. In theory they are protected by the US and Iraqi forces, but in reality they decide if they allow foreign (US and Iraqi) troops in any of the areas under their control.
  • Non-aligned Sunni arabs (western desert): Few nomadic tribes, not too involved in the fighting. Nothing interesting to fight about there anyway.
  • Ba'athist Sunni arabs (center): Can be split in two groups (liberals and conservatives) but generally getting supported by Al Qaeda. Liberals probably having more former party officials and conservatives more Al Qaeda. Financially well equipped (access to Al Qaeda and a large part of the National Bank funds which was stolen in 2003)
  • Shia arabs (south): NOT supported by Iran due to history (1985-1988 war), but might get money by making strategic alliances with...
  • Shia arabic speaking Iranians (south): only group officially being supported by Iran
    And then there are the other groups that arent directly invovled; assyrians, christians, yazidis and a few other ones... most of them either left the country or moved to the north

    And the major factors:
    North and south have oil, center and west have no natural resources of importance, thats the main reason why they keep fighting each other.
    Arabs hate Iranians and the other way around... especially in Iraq. For most Ba'athists being shia or kurd counts as being 'iranian' too.
  •  

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    Reply #19 - Dec 20th, 2006 at 6:01pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.

    It's all very well if the Terrorists are a six man cause all barricaded into the same building. However, when the terrorists have the support of a nation, or a religion, then to stamp them out would mean you'd have to be far more ruthless than just carving the occasional prisoners head off. On a small scale not negotiating with terrorists works. On a large scale you have to be prepared to negotiate or watch the deaths of millions in wars that cannot be won.
     

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    Reply #20 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 10:52am

    Chris_F   Offline
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    Ivan wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:09pm:
    In the current situation the whole prisoner treatment thing isnt working anymore... in their thoughts, surrendering equals getting tainted... which leads to getting killed by their own guys because they departed their faith (or being forced to see them kill your family first and then you afterwards).

    Agreed.  Certainly that's nothing new.  The Russians used to shoot their own troops who surrendered during the Battle of Stalingrad.  The Japanese executed their own troops who showed signs of weakness during WWII.  In fact, the Japanese mentality towards surrender is almost exactly the same as that being expressed above.  Surrender shamed you AND your family and was not allowed.  This extended to their attitudes towards their POWs (US forces and those they faced in Korea, Indo-china, etc).  Beheading their POWs was thought to be an act of kindness (better than being forced to return to their families in shame) and far more often their POWs were tortured to death.  Sounds familiar...
     
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    Reply #21 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 10:57am

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    I don't think the Japanise beheaded many allied POWs. They didn't think twice about working, or beating them to death though.
     

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    Reply #22 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 12:47pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 10:57am:
    I don't think the Japanise beheaded many allied POWs. They didn't think twice about working, or beating them to death though.

    You're right, there weren't many beheadings.  I think they viewed it as too much of an honor to bestow on their POWs.  Yeah, the more common fate was to be worked or beaten to death.  Since we're in to gruesome stuff here (and to illustrate the horrors of war) in Indonesia the Japanese troops were left to starve when their home country decided conquoring Indonesia wasn't worth the effort.  The stranded Japanese troops turned canibal.  Unfortunately meat on dead animals rotted quickly in the jungle, and there weren't many animals around.  So POWs were kept alive as long as possible, sometimes weeks.  That's all I'll say...
     
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    Reply #23 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 3:01pm

    Ivan   Offline
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    Now we arrived at ww2 Japan... What they did in China (which is usually ignored) still has a majopr influence on regional relations... They did bioweapon experiments on POW camps...
     

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    Reply #24 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:14pm

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    Ivan,  I'm aware of those factions.  However, that does not speak to the difference of our opinions.  Agreed the Ba'thists have the orgizational skills and the financing.  However, their involvement in the violence has waned in comparison to Al Qaeda and alligned foreign fighters.  After it has become fairly clear Saddam wasn't coming back, the Ba'athists began to come to the recognition that they were Iraqis killing their own countrymen.  The motivationt that Saddam provided them to kill their countrymen no longer exists.  If you're of the opinion that the main Sunni violence comes from the Ba'thists, then what is their motivation.  Ba'thists are a political party, there's no religious motivation behind that.  The main Sunni organized campaign of violence can be attributed to Al Qaeda.  During the battle of Fallujah, the fighters that were encountered came fom 19 different countries.  Surely, they weren't 19 different branches of the Ba'thists movement.  They were all motivated by jihad.
     

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    Reply #25 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...
     
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    Reply #26 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:24pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Beheadings by the Japanese were more numerous that what is being suggested here.  The militerists in Japan saw themselves as the militerist and spiritual descendants of the samurai, of which the sword was an intergral weapon.  In fact, the sword defined the samurai, it took on a somewhat spiritual meaning to the warrior.  That is why all Japanese officers carries swords, and even fighter pilots sometimes carried the sword in the cockpit with him, not as a weapon if he should get shot down, but it was a symbol of the samurai spirit.

    Now, it was a matter of honor and was quite natural for a Japanese officer to behead an enemy.  In fact, during the Rape of Nanking, Japanese soldiers had killing contests: who could behead the most Chinese prisoners in a given amount of time.  I've read personal accounts of Japanese officers becoming addicted to beheading captives.  One officer confessed it got so bad for him that he would secretly size-up the necks of people he encountered.
     

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    Reply #27 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?
     

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    Reply #28 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:02pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Isn't it solved?


    It can never be "solved"...
     
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    Reply #29 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".
     

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    Reply #30 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 6:04pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".


    Although a notorious convicted murderer released from prison under the "Good Friday Agreement" did try to assasinate the two most prominent Republican polititians in Northern Ireland last month...

    Any solution that see convicted criminals released "just like that", is far from ideal, and questionably solves the problem at all...
     
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    Reply #31 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



    I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?
     

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    Reply #32 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:41am

    expat   Offline
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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



    I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?



    It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism, and stamping him out has produced two things. 1: A Civil war 2: Which is being used as a catalyst to terrorism. So by removing him, we actually have increased the likelihood  of terrorism.

    Matt
     

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    Reply #33 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 7:40am

    Woodlouse2002   Offline
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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



    I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

    How can you stamp it out without causing religious genocide?
     

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    Reply #34 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:16am

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



    I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

    Are you talking about Hussein or Bush?

    Smiley
     
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    Reply #35 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am

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    Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.
     

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    Reply #36 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 9:09am

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    Life is much simpler as an ambivalent atheist  Kiss

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    Reply #37 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:32pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Chris_F wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:16am:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
    Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
    Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



    Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



    Isn't it solved?

    To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



    I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

    Are you talking about Hussein or Bush?

    Smiley



    Based on well known facts, neither!   Roll Eyes

    Care to guess again?
     

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    Reply #38 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:33pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am:
    Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.



    Only if you live in Oz.  The facts are well known, this is not difficult.   Roll Eyes
     

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    Reply #39 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 1:04pm

    Woodlouse2002   Offline
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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:33pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am:
    Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.



    Only if you live in Oz.  The facts are well known, this is not difficult.   Roll Eyes

    I don't live in Oz.

    Quote:
    I understand your point. Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now. When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

    Are you talking about Iran there?
     

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    Reply #40 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 2:31pm

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    Quote:
    Are you talking about Iran there?

    Sounds like it...
    In reality the danger is on the other side of the gulf...
     

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    Reply #41 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 2:57pm

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    expat wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:41am:
    It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism, and stamping him out has produced two things. 1: A Civil war 2: Which is being used as a catalyst to terrorism. So by removing him, we actually have increased the likelihood  of terrorism.
    Matt


    You'll get no debate from me because I never said that.  And your point regarding increasing the liklihood of terrorism is debatable.  However, we do know Saddam was busy, such as paying the families of suicide bombers in Israel after the bombers have completed their acts of terror.  And let us not forget the mock-up of an airliner used for terror training found just outside Baghdad.  But prior to 9/11, the terrorist have been able to perform their terror activities with impunity.  For the most part, the world treated the terrorism as police responsibilities:  for the most part, arriving after the crime has been commited and seeking to bring the perpetrators to justice.  Post 9/11 means the battle had finally been joined.

    What can be, and is being debated is whether post 9/11 activities in Iraq had any positive results or not.  I expect several with vehimately disagree with me, but my opinion is there were two catigories of mistakes in Iraq.  The first is intelligence failed to appreciate the difficulty of post-invasion Iraq.  Obviously, there were mistakes in this regard, but my opinion is many critics like to wax with wisdom, ignoring the fact that they are armed with the hindsight which is always 20/20 vision.

    The second point, is in my opinion not a mistake, but is quite deliberate.  And I expect vehimate disagreement with this point as well.  I draw upon history to come to this conclusion, something I wish more people did when they form their opinions.  We can go all the way back to Viet Nam.  There were several catigories of mistakes there as well, but I will focus on the media, and the part it had to play.  At that time, global, electronic relatively real-time media was a fairly new concept.  There had been a growing anti-war movement in the states.  It was what it was and I will not explore it, but suffice it to say, the reporting of it reached the eyes and ears of the North Vietnamese.  The north calculated that the US will ultimately loose the will to fight.  After Tet in 1968, even though the US suffered great casualties, the NVA and the VC suffered more, and in fact they were demoralized and some even suggested they had lost the war.  But those on the battlefield were not privvy to the knowlege that the North's commanders had back in Hanoi.  The US was loosing the will to fight.  So the North just had to keep hanging on, and the US will ultimately give up.  And we know, that's exactly what did occur.

    Now, fast forward to the US action in Somalia, what was an action to protect those feeding starving Somali's from the warring factions.  In the age of CNN, when there were several US casualties being shown on the news in real-time, President Clinton feared this would become domestically unpopular and withdrew the US forces.  Audience to this was Osama Bin Ladin, and he made that famous statement: The Americans cannot tolerate they soldiers being killed (as brought to their tv screens in the age of CNN).  He calculate the US would only respond with a tit for tat type of response, such as Clinton's cruise missles being shot into Afgani Al Qaeda camps.

    Now fast forward to Iraq in the present.  We have a repeat of the same scenario that occurred in Viet Nam.  The constant media barrage, and clear bias that the coalition's actions in Iraq were ill-advices and should not have occurred in the first place, it serves to demoralize the troops and encourage the terrorists.  All they have to do is keep up, no matter how many of their numbers are lost, because the US will ultimately loose the will to fight.  And that is exactly what is happening right now.


    Now, I expect to be quoted and challenged at length.  I've thought about this stuff for a long time.  I'm just offering my opinion.
     

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    Reply #42 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 3:14pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Another point regarding Tet was after the costly victory had been secured, Walter Cronkite "The Most Trusted Man In America" went on air and said that Vietnam was unwinnable.  This is in spite the fact that Tet was a victory.  When President Johnson heard Cronkite give his uninformed assessment of Vietnam, he declared infamously "If I lost Cronkite, I lost middle America".  Johnson decided not to run for re-election and the rest is history.  The US lost it's will to fight.
     

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    Reply #43 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 3:14pm:
    Another point regarding Tet was after the costly victory had been secured, Walter Cronkite "The Most Trusted Man In America" went on air and said that Vietnam was unwinnable.  This is in spite the fact that Tet was a victory.  When President Johnson heard Cronkite give his uninformed assessment of Vietnam, he declared infamously "If I lost Cronkite, I lost middle America".  Johnson decided not to run for re-election and the rest is history.  The US lost it's will to fight.


    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.

     

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    Reply #44 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:43pm

    Ivan   Offline
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    Quote:
    It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism

    Quote:
    However, we do know Saddam was busy, such as paying the families of suicide bombers in Israel after the bombers have completed their acts of terror.

    Saddam was an puppet, just as most other USA sponsored Arab leaders... useful when he had power in the 1980s, useless after his adventures in Kuwait.

    The real big terrorism sponsor in the mideast is the government of Saudi Arabia that pays the Bin Laden clan and a few other big fishes to keep their attention away from the royal family (which in their eyes is blasphemous because they allow US bases in their territory).

    OK now the media stuff from dcunning, which is a far more interesting tale
    Somalia was a media disaster... not because the planning was bad, but because it happened just after the gulf war when everyone believed that the US was invincible (which was about 380 deaths on a force of 600.000, with most casualties suffered by the Kuwaitis and a few nasty blue-on-blues)

    Iraq is a mess because the planning went wrong in an early stage... Some big mistakes have been made, and it will take some time to clean the mess up. But one thing is certain... federalism isnt the long term solution.

    The main problem with Iraq is that there wasnt enough time and media resources to build a credible 'mad dictator' media image. While Iran usually provides enough material to keep up the western point of view on them, Iraq on the outside looked like a normal western-influenced state, an image that they themselves tried to keep up also (even after 1991). So for the ordinary man, Iraq never looked dangerous or like the police state it really was.

    There simply wasn't enough information available that showed the real face of the Iraqi regime while not putting the public opinion or valueable allies in a difficult position. The two major events that could have turned public opinion but were never used in a way that could have turned public opinion in favour of the whole operation (as happened with Kosovo) were:
    1: The ethnic cleansing in the south after 1991. This was not useable because there wasn't enough material publicly available at that time, and because it could have been seen as supporting Iran, which was definetly NOT the desired result.
    2: The campaigns against the Kurds (1988-2003). Even though this has a LOT more media coverage, it was unuseable for a public support campaign because the involvment of NATO partner Turkey in the area. Any public mentioning of atrocities in Iraq would have resulted huge media attention for the Kurds in general which would have placed Turkey in a very difficult position. Getting the Anfal campaign as a opinion turner might have worked even better, but that would have embarassed almost all sitting european leaders in such a way that a mass government collapse would have been very likely to happen (which is not something you want if you are on the verge of starting a war)

    So instead of going for photogenic drama the decision was made to go for the nuke / chemical option... which wasnt a good choice.
    OK they DID hide stuff for the UN and they DID experiment a bit with yellowcake, but even the most dangerous installations looked like they wouldnt have made anything dangerous on a short-term basis. And the rest of the chemical stuff was 1980s vintage and such bad quality (some say that this was done on purpose) that it wasnt useable anymore a few months after being delivered.

    For the public opinion a photo of a row of bunkers doesnt activate the subconscios mind in the same way as a photo of mutilated bodies or desparate refugees.
     

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    Reply #45 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm

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    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes
     

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    Reply #46 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:53pm

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    Ivan, great post!
     

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    Reply #47 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 5:06pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:53pm:
    Ivan, great post!

    Shame that a lot of people dont read anything longer than 2 alineas... Some of the replies are really good while others are missing the point by miles
     

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    Reply #48 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm:
    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes

    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.
     

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    Reply #49 - Dec 27th, 2006 at 9:59pm

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    Winable really depends on the reasons for getting involved in the conflict.  Despite what the politicians, media, and special interest groups say Iraq isn't about Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, or Oil.  If it were any of these it would have made much more sense to invade some other country (Iran, Korea, Venezuela).  Instead Iraq was a statement to the world that the US was going to be an active policeman on the world stage.  Effectively Iraq was an attempt to erase Somalia, Bosnia, and the other recent instances where the US showed the world that it didn't have a taste for committing to armed engagements (beyond perhaps bombing a few huts).  Iraq is about keeping countries like Iran and Korea in line and show the various despots around the world that the US will commit to armed engagement against you if you do something stupid, like support terrorism.  Iraq was just politically and militarily the easiest target.  Compound that with the bad intelegence already mentioned and we are where we are today.

    Now combine that with dcunnings argument and now its obvious how dangerous the Iraq situation is: disengaging (which we most certainly will do) will show the world that we do indeed have a lack of commitment for such engagements.  Perhaps that's a good thing (as I'm no fan of being a tax payer funding the policing of the world, nor do I enjoy having my friends and family members in harms way), but perhaps it will embolden those same rogue states we wanted to scare.  Time will tell.

    So is Iraq unwinable?  Depends on the intent.  I think Iran and Korea would be much more active and dangerous today if we hadn't gone to Iraq, I think Iraq delayed them significantly.  Perhaps the engagement has already had the desired effect.  But perhaps it won't.  I can't tell the future...
     
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    Reply #50 - Dec 27th, 2006 at 10:08pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm:
    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.

    At the time of Guadacanal remember that we (the Allies) thought we'd have to invade Japan and kill just about every man, woman, and child on the island.  Remember, these folks were fanatical.  Winning in Japan seemend just as remote as winning against terror sounds, though perhaps more neatly packaged.

    However I don't understand the argument "we shouldn't even fight".  Okay, perhaps we shouldn't fight in Iraq, maybe that particular conflict was poorly chosen (not that I believe it, but I'm not arguing that point).  But "not fighting" against terror means either we accept terror attacks, or give in to whatever the terrorists want (not possible since many demands conflict), or bury our heads in the sand and ignore the world.  Do we stop gathering inteligence on terrorists?  Do we stop breaking down appartment doors, disrupting terrorist cells, and arresting terrorists?  Do we un-freeze the frozen financial assetts linked to terrorists?  Or should we only do those things because the loss of life of these activities is small.  If that's the case then is it merely the calculus of body counts that makes the fight against terror unpalitable?  If that's the case then how much is freedom worth in terms of bodies?  I'm not talking about Iraq, I'm talking about doing anything risky to fight terror (sending people under cover to gather intelegence is risky, paying locals for information puts them at risk, etc).  Exactly how low is your risk tollerance?

    Or are your comments purely about Iraq?  If they are then that's not the war on terror (despite claims by the politicians).
     
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    Reply #51 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am

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    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.

    As for not fighting, no I don't think we should stop gathering intelligence and disrupting terrorist cells etc. Invading nations though is an entirely different kettle of fish.
     

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    Reply #52 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:38pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm:
    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes

    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.



    You should try reading a few books on Guadalcanal.  Operation Watchtower was not informally renamed to Operation Shoestring for nothing.  The victory on Guadalcanal was not a foregone conclusion for many reasons.  It appears you might be relying on hindsight to judge the campaign.
     

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    Reply #53 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:42pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:38pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm:
    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes

    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.



    You should try reading a few books on Guadalcanal.  Operation Watchtower was not informally renamed to Operation Shoestring for nothing.  The victory on Guadalcanal was not a foregone conclusion for many reasons.  It appears you might be relying on hindsight to judge the campaign.

    No. My point was with Guadalcanal it was clear what had to be done to achieve victory. Eleminate japanise resistance. I didn't make any mention of how difficult or easy it was, nor did I say it was a foregone conclusion. All I said is that it was clear what had to be done to win.
     

    Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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    Reply #54 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:43pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am:
    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.


    When we fail to know the history, we end up contradicting the history.

    So, post WWII, the world readily depended on, and openly encouraged the US to play the role of the world's policeman.  And once the world has more-or-less gotten back onto it's feet, with some help from the marshall plan, no doubt, suddenly the world resents the role it has encouraged just a generation previous.

    Big fat YAWN!   Roll Eyes
     

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    Reply #55 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:48pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:42pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:38pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm:
    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes

    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.



    You should try reading a few books on Guadalcanal.  Operation Watchtower was not informally renamed to Operation Shoestring for nothing.  The victory on Guadalcanal was not a foregone conclusion for many reasons.  It appears you might be relying on hindsight to judge the campaign.

    No. My point was with Guadalcanal it was clear what had to be done to achieve victory. Eleminate japanise resistance. I didn't make any mention of how difficult or easy it was, nor did I say it was a foregone conclusion. All I said is that it was clear what had to be done to win.



    In the first 6 months of Guadalcanal, the only thing that was clear was the 1st Marine Division was expected to defeat the Japanese with not enough supplies, not enough aircraft, not enough food, not enough naval support.  And at that time, the myth of the Japanese super-jungle-fighter had not been dispelled.  It was not a foregone conclusion.  Japanese BB's were ranging up and down Sealark Channel lobbing 14" shells onto Henderson field with impunity.  You said Guadalcanal was winnable.  That's hindsight because we know it was won.  But at that time, winning was definately a precarious goal, and was not a foregone conclusion.
     

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    Reply #56 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 2:05pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:43pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am:
    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.


    When we fail to know the history, we end up contradicting the history.

    So, post WWII, the world readily depended on, and openly encouraged the US to play the role of the world's policeman.  And once the world has more-or-less gotten back onto it's feet, with some help from the marshall plan, no doubt, suddenly the world resents the role it has encouraged just a generation previous.

    Big fat YAWN!   Roll Eyes



    America does what America will regardless of what the rest of the world wants, does or thinks. America does nothing on the world stage without first very carefully calculating just how much benefit it can gain. No president has ever done anything for or to another country unless it has brought political gain. Post war building, the Marshal plan had one thing in mind, a nice buffer between America and the Soviet Block. So however it is painted, the post war role of the USA was exactly what the USA wanted and controlled.
    Today the difference is that due to modern communications, people are able to ask questions and have an opinion about what is happening. Post war it was possible to read all about it in the papers a week after it had happened, that dulled peoples interest in things. They where too far apart from what was happening to be able to do anything about it.

     

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    Reply #57 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 2:10pm

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    Heck, during the battle of Savo Island, the Japanese Navy handily ate the US Navy's lunch.  It wasn't just a loss, it was a naval disaster!  So we have this picture:  The Marines on shore lacked supplies and naval support due to IMHO the timidity of Admiral Fletcher.  Then the very first surface engagement occurring the very night of the American invasion, the US and Australian naval vessals were soundly beaten by the Japanese Navy.  It was a very, very bleak picture.  But they ultimatelu came back to win.

    Now, put that into the context of today's vast array of criticism, there would be calls from the media and armchair generals getting their "intelligence" updates from the BBC and from CNN to pull out, the Pacific War was unwinnable.
     

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    Reply #58 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 2:22pm

    dcunning30   Offline
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    expat wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 2:05pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:43pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am:
    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.


    When we fail to know the history, we end up contradicting the history.

    So, post WWII, the world readily depended on, and openly encouraged the US to play the role of the world's policeman.  And once the world has more-or-less gotten back onto it's feet, with some help from the marshall plan, no doubt, suddenly the world resents the role it has encouraged just a generation previous.

    Big fat YAWN!   Roll Eyes
    Today the difference is that due to modern communications, people are able to ask questions and have an opinion about what is happening. Post war it was possible to read all about it in the papers a week after it had happened, that dulled peoples interest in things. They where too far apart from what was happening to be able to do anything about it.


    Modern communications is an excellent thing, however I've observed it allows vast numbers of people to form opinions on matters that they have not taken the time to understand.  With modern communications, we can hear about everything.  But it takes an effort to take the time to understand the things we hear about.


    And regarding your opinion of the Marshall Plan, did it not benefit those countries that CHOSE to recieve the aid?  If the countries that receivied the aid percieved it was some evil plan for America to control the world, all they had to do is to reject it.
     

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    Reply #59 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 2:38pm

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    Chris_F wrote on Dec 27th, 2006 at 9:59pm:
    So is Iraq unwinable?  Depends on the intent.  I think Iran and Korea would be much more active and dangerous today if we hadn't gone to Iraq, I think Iraq delayed them significantly.  Perhaps the engagement has already had the desired effect.  But perhaps it won't.  I can't tell the future...


    My opinion is Iraq had multiple effects.  Notice suicide attacks had waned in Israel, and so far the number of suicide attacks have not picked up to the level of pre-Iraq.  It appears this can be attributed to the fact that Saddam is no longer around to pay the families of suicide bombers.

    Also, it has upset Al Qaeda's timetable of international attacks.  This can't yet be proven nor disproven, but there are hints to this in intercepted communications.  Iraq had become the magnet for the jihadis.  If the US takes the advice of the media and the Baker surrender report, then Al Qaeda will view a pullout as nothing less than surrender.  Of course mistakes were made, but a pullout would be a mistake magnitudes greater than all previous mistakes.

    Personally, I'm not too worried about North Korea, but Iran is being exposed in ways it wouldn't have otherwise.  Thise who think that Iran is not a big deal just aren't paying attention.
     

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    Reply #60 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:33pm

    Woodlouse2002   Offline
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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:48pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:42pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:38pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 7:56pm:
    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:50pm:
    expat wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm:
    In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.


    Using that logic, I suppose we should have quit fighting the Japanese in WWII after 1 month on Guadalcanal?   Roll Eyes

    Thats not really using logic. Guadalcanal was winnable, all you have to do is remove Japanise resistance from the island. The current war, the "lets get rid of world terrorism" war cannot be won. Therefore there is no point in fighting.



    You should try reading a few books on Guadalcanal.  Operation Watchtower was not informally renamed to Operation Shoestring for nothing.  The victory on Guadalcanal was not a foregone conclusion for many reasons.  It appears you might be relying on hindsight to judge the campaign.

    No. My point was with Guadalcanal it was clear what had to be done to achieve victory. Eleminate japanise resistance. I didn't make any mention of how difficult or easy it was, nor did I say it was a foregone conclusion. All I said is that it was clear what had to be done to win.



    In the first 6 months of Guadalcanal, the only thing that was clear was the 1st Marine Division was expected to defeat the Japanese with not enough supplies, not enough aircraft, not enough food, not enough naval support.  And at that time, the myth of the Japanese super-jungle-fighter had not been dispelled.  It was not a foregone conclusion.  Japanese BB's were ranging up and down Sealark Channel lobbing 14" shells onto Henderson field with impunity.  You said Guadalcanal was winnable.  That's hindsight because we know it was won.  But at that time, winning was definately a precarious goal, and was not a foregone conclusion.

    I never said it was a foregone conclusion. It was always winnable though. There were clear objectives that if carried out would see the Japanise on the island defeated. This is why you cannot make comparisons with the war, which you are trying to do. Because short of killing every human being on the planet it will never be won by either side. That is my point. Nothing to do with the odds against the American forces in the first 20 minutes of the Guadalcanal invasion.

    If you put that into context today, then yes, maybe given the initial circumstances, the troops ashore and the supporting fleet decimated, there might be calls to pull out. However, as I have said it was always obvious what was ultimately required to win. In the current conflict, as in Vietnam, there is no winning strategy. That is why it is better to pull out that to just sit around in indecision while people die.
     

    Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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    Reply #61 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:52pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am:
    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.

    It also showed that the world won't do anything substantial (economic sanctions, use of force, etc) when the US does invade a country using the thinnest of excuses.  Smiley  Sadly the world reacted to Iraq the same way they reacted to Hitler's early invasions in Europe: lots of words, absolutely no action.  I just hope my fellow countrymen aren't silly enough to continue to persue such a path given the lack of international incentive to the contrary.

    However the excuses for the invasion need not be thin in this case.  Hussein clearly violated the Gulf War I Cease fire agreement on many occasions.  One could argue that the second Iraq invasion was merely a resumption of hostilities in response.  But that doesn't play as well in the press as Weapons of Mass Destruction or Terrorism.
     
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    Reply #62 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:55pm

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    dcunning30 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 1:43pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 8:29am:
    First off, the war with Iraq, if intended to show the world that America intends to be an active policeman, has backfired. It's demonstrated that the world won't stand America invading countries on the thinnest of excuses.


    When we fail to know the history, we end up contradicting the history.

    So, post WWII, the world readily depended on, and openly encouraged the US to play the role of the world's policeman.  And once the world has more-or-less gotten back onto it's feet, with some help from the marshall plan, no doubt, suddenly the world resents the role it has encouraged just a generation previous.

    Big fat YAWN!   Roll Eyes

    I was speaking more recently, the Clinton years severely degraded the US's reputation as active policeman, and some could argue that Terror activity, and sabor rattling by rogue nations, surged as a result.  Iraq was in part an attempt to regain that reputation.  Agreed with your sentiment regarding the post WWII history.
     
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    Reply #63 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:56pm

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    Chris_F wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:52pm:
     Sadly the world reacted to Iraq the same way they reacted to Hitler's early invasions in Europe: lots of words, absolutely no action.  I just hope my fellow countrymen aren't silly enough to continue to persue such a path given the lack of international incentive to the contrary.

    I think the eventual reaction more than made up for it. Anyway, if nations went to war every time they had a disagreement they would never be at peace.
     

    Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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    Reply #64 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 5:02pm

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    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:56pm:
    Chris_F wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:52pm:
     Sadly the world reacted to Iraq the same way they reacted to Hitler's early invasions in Europe: lots of words, absolutely no action.  I just hope my fellow countrymen aren't silly enough to continue to persue such a path given the lack of international incentive to the contrary.

    I think the eventual reaction more than made up for it. Anyway, if nations went to war every time they had a disagreement they would never be at peace.

    What eventual reaction?  The US is under no sanction from the international community.  Frankly it seems nobody cares.  I can still buy a German car or a French bottle of wine in my local grocery store so obviously those contries most vocal against the US aren't persuing any sort of economic sanction or trade embargo. 

    There was a political reaction back home which indicated the US voters are distasteful of the duration of the conflict, however it's doubtful this would have occured if not for the duration of conflict.  Had the outcome gone the way those in powere believed it would (short engagement, a couple months of setting up a government, no real resistance, etc) it's doubtful the election outcome would have occured.  And as such the same people would be in power only now with the knowledge that the international community will do nothing about US agression.
     
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    Reply #65 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 5:08pm

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    Quote:
    Personally, I'm not too worried about North Korea, but Iran is being exposed in ways it wouldn't have otherwise.  Thise who think that Iran is not a big deal just aren't paying attention.

    What do you want... a unpredictable madman in your back garden or a religuous extremist on the other side of the street that is noisy but predictable.

    While the current Iranian leader might seem a little on the agressive side, he got far more experience and political feel than Khatami. He holds (and has held) some fairly high positions in various organisations, and before he became president he was major of Tehran (which is considered the 2nd most difficult political position in Iran). The amount of anti-Israel screaming is often directly related to internal poll results (he sees himself as a populist).
    About the weapons program... don't forget that the supreme leader is AGAINST nuclear weapons (he made an official statemen about that).

    Getting in trouble with Iran will more likely result in a reaction of North Korea than the Iranians themselves doing something nasty... China will have a reaction... and the most effect has been proven to be when they untighten the leash on the DPRK.

    And the biggest unstable factor at the moment is Pakistan... every day more information is leaking out that suggests that the government is actively helping Al Qaeda. Musharraf won't take action against this because when he does his career is finished (in a quite permanent way).
     

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    Reply #66 - Dec 28th, 2006 at 5:33pm

    Woodlouse2002   Offline
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    Chris_F wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 5:02pm:
    Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:56pm:
    Chris_F wrote on Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:52pm:
     Sadly the world reacted to Iraq the same way they reacted to Hitler's early invasions in Europe: lots of words, absolutely no action.  I just hope my fellow countrymen aren't silly enough to continue to persue such a path given the lack of international incentive to the contrary.

    I think the eventual reaction more than made up for it. Anyway, if nations went to war every time they had a disagreement they would never be at peace.

    What eventual reaction?  The US is under no sanction from the international community.  Frankly it seems nobody cares.  I can still buy a German car or a French bottle of wine in my local grocery store so obviously those contries most vocal against the US aren't persuing any sort of economic sanction or trade embargo.  

    There was a political reaction back home which indicated the US voters are distasteful of the duration of the conflict, however it's doubtful this would have occured if not for the duration of conflict.  Had the outcome gone the way those in powere believed it would (short engagement, a couple months of setting up a government, no real resistance, etc) it's doubtful the election outcome would have occured.  And as such the same people would be in power only now with the knowledge that the international community will do nothing about US agression.

    Sorry, should have made it clearer that I was refering to the eventual reaction to Hitlers actions.
     

    Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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