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F-16 Down over Iraq! (Read 6185 times)
Reply #30 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 6:04pm

C   Offline
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Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".


Although a notorious convicted murderer released from prison under the "Good Friday Agreement" did try to assasinate the two most prominent Republican polititians in Northern Ireland last month...

Any solution that see convicted criminals released "just like that", is far from ideal, and questionably solves the problem at all...
 
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Reply #31 - Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm

dcunning30   Offline
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Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



Isn't it solved?

To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?
 

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Reply #32 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:41am

expat   Offline
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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



Isn't it solved?

To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?



It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism, and stamping him out has produced two things. 1: A Civil war 2: Which is being used as a catalyst to terrorism. So by removing him, we actually have increased the likelihood  of terrorism.

Matt
 

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Reply #33 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 7:40am

Woodlouse2002   Offline
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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



Isn't it solved?

To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

How can you stamp it out without causing religious genocide?
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #34 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:16am

Chris_F   Offline
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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



Isn't it solved?

To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

Are you talking about Hussein or Bush?

Smiley
 
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Reply #35 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am

Woodlouse2002   Offline
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Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #36 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 9:09am

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Life is much simpler as an ambivalent atheist  Kiss

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Reply #37 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:32pm

dcunning30   Offline
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Chris_F wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:16am:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 9:16pm:
Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 5:36pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:29pm:
Charlie wrote on Dec 21st, 2006 at 4:17pm:
dcunning30 wrote on Dec 20th, 2006 at 4:31pm:
Terrorism only works when societies lack sufficient balls to make the decision to do whatever it takes to stamp it out.



Really? Maybe you could have been of use to tell the world how to solved the problem of the Northern Ireland problem...



Isn't it solved?

To a certain extent. No ones killing eachother any more. We didn't get to this stage though by "stamping it out".



I understand your point.  Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now.  When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

Are you talking about Hussein or Bush?

Smiley



Based on well known facts, neither!   Roll Eyes

Care to guess again?
 

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Reply #38 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:33pm

dcunning30   Offline
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Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am:
Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.



Only if you live in Oz.  The facts are well known, this is not difficult.   Roll Eyes
 

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Reply #39 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 1:04pm

Woodlouse2002   Offline
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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:33pm:
Woodlouse2002 wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 8:34am:
Scary thing is that the description fits Bush better than it does Hussein.



Only if you live in Oz.  The facts are well known, this is not difficult.   Roll Eyes

I don't live in Oz.

Quote:
I understand your point. Maybe I was implying the sort of terrorism that's currently going on now. When we have a leader of a nation that is likely the chief national sponsor of global terrorism proclaim that everyone should convert to a certain religion or be destroyed, how can you negotiate with that?

Are you talking about Iran there?
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #40 - Dec 22nd, 2006 at 2:31pm

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Quote:
Are you talking about Iran there?

Sounds like it...
In reality the danger is on the other side of the gulf...
 

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Reply #41 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 2:57pm

dcunning30   Offline
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expat wrote on Dec 22nd, 2006 at 12:41am:
It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism, and stamping him out has produced two things. 1: A Civil war 2: Which is being used as a catalyst to terrorism. So by removing him, we actually have increased the likelihood  of terrorism.
Matt


You'll get no debate from me because I never said that.  And your point regarding increasing the liklihood of terrorism is debatable.  However, we do know Saddam was busy, such as paying the families of suicide bombers in Israel after the bombers have completed their acts of terror.  And let us not forget the mock-up of an airliner used for terror training found just outside Baghdad.  But prior to 9/11, the terrorist have been able to perform their terror activities with impunity.  For the most part, the world treated the terrorism as police responsibilities:  for the most part, arriving after the crime has been commited and seeking to bring the perpetrators to justice.  Post 9/11 means the battle had finally been joined.

What can be, and is being debated is whether post 9/11 activities in Iraq had any positive results or not.  I expect several with vehimately disagree with me, but my opinion is there were two catigories of mistakes in Iraq.  The first is intelligence failed to appreciate the difficulty of post-invasion Iraq.  Obviously, there were mistakes in this regard, but my opinion is many critics like to wax with wisdom, ignoring the fact that they are armed with the hindsight which is always 20/20 vision.

The second point, is in my opinion not a mistake, but is quite deliberate.  And I expect vehimate disagreement with this point as well.  I draw upon history to come to this conclusion, something I wish more people did when they form their opinions.  We can go all the way back to Viet Nam.  There were several catigories of mistakes there as well, but I will focus on the media, and the part it had to play.  At that time, global, electronic relatively real-time media was a fairly new concept.  There had been a growing anti-war movement in the states.  It was what it was and I will not explore it, but suffice it to say, the reporting of it reached the eyes and ears of the North Vietnamese.  The north calculated that the US will ultimately loose the will to fight.  After Tet in 1968, even though the US suffered great casualties, the NVA and the VC suffered more, and in fact they were demoralized and some even suggested they had lost the war.  But those on the battlefield were not privvy to the knowlege that the North's commanders had back in Hanoi.  The US was loosing the will to fight.  So the North just had to keep hanging on, and the US will ultimately give up.  And we know, that's exactly what did occur.

Now, fast forward to the US action in Somalia, what was an action to protect those feeding starving Somali's from the warring factions.  In the age of CNN, when there were several US casualties being shown on the news in real-time, President Clinton feared this would become domestically unpopular and withdrew the US forces.  Audience to this was Osama Bin Ladin, and he made that famous statement: The Americans cannot tolerate they soldiers being killed (as brought to their tv screens in the age of CNN).  He calculate the US would only respond with a tit for tat type of response, such as Clinton's cruise missles being shot into Afgani Al Qaeda camps.

Now fast forward to Iraq in the present.  We have a repeat of the same scenario that occurred in Viet Nam.  The constant media barrage, and clear bias that the coalition's actions in Iraq were ill-advices and should not have occurred in the first place, it serves to demoralize the troops and encourage the terrorists.  All they have to do is keep up, no matter how many of their numbers are lost, because the US will ultimately loose the will to fight.  And that is exactly what is happening right now.


Now, I expect to be quoted and challenged at length.  I've thought about this stuff for a long time.  I'm just offering my opinion.
 

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Reply #42 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 3:14pm

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Another point regarding Tet was after the costly victory had been secured, Walter Cronkite "The Most Trusted Man In America" went on air and said that Vietnam was unwinnable.  This is in spite the fact that Tet was a victory.  When President Johnson heard Cronkite give his uninformed assessment of Vietnam, he declared infamously "If I lost Cronkite, I lost middle America".  Johnson decided not to run for re-election and the rest is history.  The US lost it's will to fight.
 

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Reply #43 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:33pm

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dcunning30 wrote on Dec 26th, 2006 at 3:14pm:
Another point regarding Tet was after the costly victory had been secured, Walter Cronkite "The Most Trusted Man In America" went on air and said that Vietnam was unwinnable.  This is in spite the fact that Tet was a victory.  When President Johnson heard Cronkite give his uninformed assessment of Vietnam, he declared infamously "If I lost Cronkite, I lost middle America".  Johnson decided not to run for re-election and the rest is history.  The US lost it's will to fight.


In 10 years of the Vietnam war as we all know 58,000 members of the armed forces died. The Iraq "problem" has been forecast to last up to 30 years or even a generation. What you be an acceptable figure of deaths before you would say, it cannot be won? As it stand we are at about 10 more troop deaths than people killed in the twin tower attacks.

 

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Reply #44 - Dec 26th, 2006 at 4:43pm

Ivan   Offline
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Quote:
It is very debatable whether Sadam was the chief sponsor of global terrorism

Quote:
However, we do know Saddam was busy, such as paying the families of suicide bombers in Israel after the bombers have completed their acts of terror.

Saddam was an puppet, just as most other USA sponsored Arab leaders... useful when he had power in the 1980s, useless after his adventures in Kuwait.

The real big terrorism sponsor in the mideast is the government of Saudi Arabia that pays the Bin Laden clan and a few other big fishes to keep their attention away from the royal family (which in their eyes is blasphemous because they allow US bases in their territory).

OK now the media stuff from dcunning, which is a far more interesting tale
Somalia was a media disaster... not because the planning was bad, but because it happened just after the gulf war when everyone believed that the US was invincible (which was about 380 deaths on a force of 600.000, with most casualties suffered by the Kuwaitis and a few nasty blue-on-blues)

Iraq is a mess because the planning went wrong in an early stage... Some big mistakes have been made, and it will take some time to clean the mess up. But one thing is certain... federalism isnt the long term solution.

The main problem with Iraq is that there wasnt enough time and media resources to build a credible 'mad dictator' media image. While Iran usually provides enough material to keep up the western point of view on them, Iraq on the outside looked like a normal western-influenced state, an image that they themselves tried to keep up also (even after 1991). So for the ordinary man, Iraq never looked dangerous or like the police state it really was.

There simply wasn't enough information available that showed the real face of the Iraqi regime while not putting the public opinion or valueable allies in a difficult position. The two major events that could have turned public opinion but were never used in a way that could have turned public opinion in favour of the whole operation (as happened with Kosovo) were:
1: The ethnic cleansing in the south after 1991. This was not useable because there wasn't enough material publicly available at that time, and because it could have been seen as supporting Iran, which was definetly NOT the desired result.
2: The campaigns against the Kurds (1988-2003). Even though this has a LOT more media coverage, it was unuseable for a public support campaign because the involvment of NATO partner Turkey in the area. Any public mentioning of atrocities in Iraq would have resulted huge media attention for the Kurds in general which would have placed Turkey in a very difficult position. Getting the Anfal campaign as a opinion turner might have worked even better, but that would have embarassed almost all sitting european leaders in such a way that a mass government collapse would have been very likely to happen (which is not something you want if you are on the verge of starting a war)

So instead of going for photogenic drama the decision was made to go for the nuke / chemical option... which wasnt a good choice.
OK they DID hide stuff for the UN and they DID experiment a bit with yellowcake, but even the most dangerous installations looked like they wouldnt have made anything dangerous on a short-term basis. And the rest of the chemical stuff was 1980s vintage and such bad quality (some say that this was done on purpose) that it wasnt useable anymore a few months after being delivered.

For the public opinion a photo of a row of bunkers doesnt activate the subconscios mind in the same way as a photo of mutilated bodies or desparate refugees.
 

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