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German Conceptual Economic Models. (Read 1192 times)
May 4th, 2005 at 7:21am
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
Does anyone have a speculation on what the German economy would be like today if we did not have World War II? (lets assume tho, that Russia still took control of eastern europe.)
Would Germany still be in an economic recession but its position made even worse?

A.
 
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Reply #1 - May 4th, 2005 at 7:57am

Webb   Ex Member
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At which point would your timeline diverge?

1933 - Hitler becomes Chancellor
1934 - Hitler becomes Fuhrer
1938 - Annexation of Austria
1939 - Invasion of Poland
 
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Reply #2 - May 4th, 2005 at 10:25am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Cross 1933 out. Hitler's election was inevitable.
 
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Reply #3 - May 4th, 2005 at 12:12pm

Ijineda   Offline
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and cross 1934 out - Hitler was the "Führer" since 1923. 1934 he became chancellor AND reichspräsident in personal union after hindenburg died.
 

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Reply #4 - May 4th, 2005 at 1:41pm

Webb   Ex Member
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1923?  Whatever.

The Austrians and Czechs might not agree but the "official" start of WW2 is ususally considered September 1939, when Germany invaded Poland.  So why don't we say that the Munich Pact held, there was "peace in our time", and take it from there.

If WW2 never happened I guess we have to assume the Nazi-Soviet peace treaty held up as well.
 
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Reply #5 - May 4th, 2005 at 1:53pm

ozzy72   Offline
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Hmm, I think Germany would have gone on to be something of a powerhouse in Europe, much as it did post-war from the 60's onwards until quite recently.
I know that the Nazis did many terrible things, but before they did those they did much to fix Germany, rebuild its industries and infrastructure, and if peace had been maintained I think Germany would have powered ahead of the rest of Europe...
 

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Reply #6 - May 4th, 2005 at 2:30pm

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Quote:
1923?  Whatever.


Hitler was the "Fuhrer" to those in the Nazi party ever since he took control of the leadership in 1923.
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #7 - May 4th, 2005 at 3:00pm
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Hitler had no choice but to go to war. His work creating measures were based on the plan that there would be a war in future. How could you cut the unemployment rate down to nearly zero without employing people in weapon factories or in the construction of roads, and railways and stuff. All of that required a lot of money, and Hitler drove the state into debts. Let's say if there had been no war in 1939, the economic boom would have faded away a few years later and the Reich would have been left on a pile of debts.
 
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Reply #8 - May 4th, 2005 at 3:15pm

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Quote:
Hmm, I think Germany would have gone on to be something of a powerhouse in Europe, much as it did post-war from the 60's onwards until quite recently.
I know that the Nazis did many terrible things, but before they did those they did much to fix Germany, rebuild its industries and infrastructure, and if peace had been maintained I think Germany would have powered ahead of the rest of Europe...



Interesting - this same statement could have been written in relation to the 1870's-1914 period, except change "Nazis" to "Prussians" ...
 

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Reply #9 - May 4th, 2005 at 3:18pm

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Quote:
Hitler had no choice but to go to war. His work creating measures were based on the plan that there would be a war in future.

I'm no economist but I don't get the logic behind that. War is an expensive pastime & although on the "winning" side Britain was almost financially crippled in 1945. The country is still paying off the debt now. I understood that Hitler originally wanted to reclaim territories that had been taken from Germany after the end of WWI. I have no idea if he would have stopped there if this had been accomplished without interference from Britain, France or Soviet Russia. I'm quite sure he never thought it would become the long bitter war that it turned out to be.
 

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Reply #10 - May 4th, 2005 at 3:25pm
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Aye, but war was his primary goal. If you want to get the Reich peacefully through the 1930s and 1940s, you would have to remove Hitler's reign. And that was nearly impossible. The war and Hitler were inevitable.
I think it's better to ask how things would have looked like if various things would have happened during WW2, e.g. invasion of GB, no declaration of war to the US, a successful attack on Russia (the attack was inevitable,too),etc...
 
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Reply #11 - May 4th, 2005 at 3:58pm

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Quote:
I'm no economist but I don't get the logic behind that. War is an expensive pastime & although on the "winning" side Britain was almost financially crippled in 1945. The country is still paying off the debt now. I understood that Hitler originally wanted to reclaim territories that had been taken from Germany after the end of WWI. I have no idea if he would have stopped there if this had been accomplished without interference from Britain, France or Soviet Russia. I'm quite sure he never thought it would become the long bitter war that it turned out to be.

Bismarcks unification in the 1860's was also based around the concept of war (Blood and Iron, Railways and Rifles etc). Defeat those that are opposed to you and you're free to do as you will. And as Trotsky said, War is the locomotive of history. Grin

Hitler wanted to "right" the wrongs done to Germany in the wake of the First World War. He also wanted to wipe out communism. The latter was always going to involve invading Russia and therefore he had always planned for war.

And if WWII hadn't happened. The USA might still have it's head in the sand as far as world affairs go.
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #12 - May 4th, 2005 at 5:37pm
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
So  how bad would have German inflation come if Germany still kept paying off the debts?

A.
 
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Reply #13 - May 4th, 2005 at 11:34pm

Webb   Ex Member
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Hitler was in prison until December 1924, hardly in a position to influence power despite his little band of followers.

WW2 pulled Germany as well as the US out of the Great Depression.  Germany's answer was called "National Socialism", "socialism" not being a dirty word at the time, but being extermely nationalist and hardly socialist.  The US answer was "Roosevltian socialism" (my own term for the New Deal and carrying every connotation of the dirty word).

Did European socialism influence American socialism or was it inevtable?  I believe that American socialism was inevitable.

I can not see a continuation of Hitler's power without war.  He surely would have been deposed by one means or another by, let's say, 1945.  Can we assume his racial policies would have remained in effect until his death?

Depending on the "brain drain" of Jewish and other minority scientists under Hitler's theoretical peaceful rule:

Germany would have been the first country to develop practical peaceful nuclear fission.

Germany could have eclipsed the US and the Soviet Union in the space race (the majority of early space technology scientists being captured German scientists).

Germany's technlogical advances would have ensured its financial future well into the 1960's, until it had to compete with Japan.

Militarily, a united Germany may have contributed to a faster end to the Cold War, or it could have incited a nuclear US/Europe v. Soviet Union nuclear war.  But since that's not the original question I will refrain.

War creates new technlogies but stifles others.  Televison was well on its way before the war.  Radar and predecessors of GPS were the result of war.  Who can say what would have happened if transistor and miscoprocessor research had continued unabated during the war years.
 
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Reply #14 - May 5th, 2005 at 3:44am
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
its so true!!

I can conclude that if Germany had kept on paying the debts, there would have been a large economic downfall (added to what had already happened).
I think that during the Fourties, Germany would have built up its economy and thru to the 50's. When Russian Warsaw Pact tim came, I think that the Germans would have been a major deterrent factor, and that it could be seen that the Cold War would have been brought to an end. I think that had they kept paying reparations, they would have become a major power in competition with UK, France and the US.


A.
 
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Reply #15 - May 5th, 2005 at 7:30am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Andrew, I think you've gotten something wrong. If you change one major thing in history, you can't assume that the time after it contains the same elements as the 'standard' history timeline.
No war -> no Cold War, no Warzaw Pact.
 
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Reply #16 - May 5th, 2005 at 7:51am

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Quote:
If you change one major thing in history, you can't assume that the time after it contains the same elements as the 'standard' history timeline.

Agreed. I was thinking the same. These "what if" scenarios are very interesting but there are so many things to consider it's impossible to know what would have happened. It might be more interesting to think about - What if Adolf Hitler had never been born.
 

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Reply #17 - May 5th, 2005 at 8:13am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
What if hed had not been refused at the arts college?
 
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Reply #18 - May 5th, 2005 at 8:36am

Hagar   Offline
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Quote:
Germany's answer was called "National Socialism", "socialism" not being a dirty word at the time, but being extermely nationalist and hardly socialist.  The US answer was "Roosevltian socialism" (my own term for the New Deal and carrying every connotation of the dirty word).

Considering that the majority of countries in Europe including the UK are run by Socialist governments, I never understood why this is considered a dirty word in the US. I obviously don't know enough about US history.
 

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Reply #19 - May 5th, 2005 at 1:17pm

Webb   Ex Member
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The word "socialism" conjures up 2 of an American's greatest fears.

First, that it is repugnant to the very idea of capitalism.  Why should I work if the government is just going to take it all away in confiscatory taxes?  I'll have the same standard of living if I do nothing.

Second, that it is repugnant to our constitution that requires the government to keep its nose out of our affairs.  Big Brother is going to watch and control everything I do and secret police will throw me in jail without charges for thinking the wrong way.  (Yes, I see the irony of America doing that very thing today.)

Personally, I have no problem with democratic socialism.  If you want to live under a socialist government you should certainly have the right to do so.  I believe, however, that practically any service provided by a government can be provided more efficiently by private enterprise.  I'd like to see the government stick to basic governmental functions like building roads, coining money and providing defense so I could pay less in taxes.

Sorry to get off topic.
 
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Reply #20 - May 5th, 2005 at 1:49pm

Woodlouse2002   Offline
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Quote:
 I'd like to see the government stick to basic governmental functions like building roads, coining money and providing defense so I could pay less in taxes.

Sorry to get off topic.

Sorry to take this further but if a government stops providing for it's people there then you may save on taxes, but that will be more than counterbalanced on the extra you pay for transport, healthcare, education etc and as a result end up where you started or god forbid, worse off.

Anyway. Hitler may have been in prison up to december 1924. But let me remind you he wrote a book while inside. Quite a way to influence your followers eh?

Finally, if there was no war then Russia would not have had an excuse to take control of Poland. The warsaw pact and therefore the cold war would never have happened and there would undoubtably be far less in the way of nuclear weapons kicking around if any at all. Tongue
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #21 - May 6th, 2005 at 8:03am
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
You're quite correct in what you say in regard to one change they all change...I realised that as soon as I posted and I though oh feline lubrication! (yes I typed that myself)

A.
 
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Reply #22 - May 6th, 2005 at 11:26am

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cat oil?? Grin

Ive always wondered what would have happened if Germany had won the war.
 

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Reply #23 - May 6th, 2005 at 11:38am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
Ive always wondered what would have happened if Germany had won the war.


Proper beer and Lederhosen for everyone! Wink
 
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Reply #24 - May 6th, 2005 at 11:41am

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and france would have speaked german and denmark will be germanys foodstore Sad
 

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Reply #25 - May 6th, 2005 at 1:40pm

Woodlouse2002   Offline
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Lederhosen for everyone! Wink

Thats the thought that won it for us. Grin Grin Grin
 

Woodlouse2002 PITA and BAR!!!!!!!!&&&&Our Sovereign Lord the King chargeth and commandeth all persons, being assembled, immediately to disperse themselves, and peaceably to depart to their habitations, or to their lawful business, upon the pains contained in the Act made in the first year of King George the First for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies. God Save the King.&&&&Viva la revolution!
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Reply #26 - May 6th, 2005 at 3:28pm
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
Thats the thought that won it for us. Grin Grin Grin


(As if we let the Bavarians be the representatives of the german culture - Prussia all the way!) Grin
 
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Reply #27 - May 6th, 2005 at 8:34pm
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
Yes!!! Prussia all the way!!

A.
 
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Reply #28 - May 9th, 2005 at 5:27am

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Shockedwhat the hell??! a conspiracy! bavaria is by far the best! we have the best beer, the hottest chicks and the most beautiful countryside Grin

ps: and as long as your not hanging out in some funky little village in the mountains, you won't see a single lederhose, i guarantee! Grin
 

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Reply #29 - May 10th, 2005 at 7:31am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
Shockedwhat the hell??! a conspiracy! bavaria is by far the best! we have the best beer, the hottest chicks and the most beautiful countryside Grin


Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure!

Btw: The Bundeswehr wanted to send me to Ulm (Bavaria). I refused, of course. Wink
 
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Reply #30 - May 10th, 2005 at 10:03am

Yurei   Offline
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Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure!
*Yurei grabs some old bretzeln (left over from Kris's trip to bavaria) and starts the throw attack on Björn* Kiss

Quote:
Btw: The Bundeswehr wanted to send me to Ulm (Bavaria). I refused, of course.   


huh? i always thought ulm was in BW! lol Shocked
half my family lives in ulm and i always thought it's a nice town (mind you, i've never been there and have hardly ever seen my family lol)
 

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Reply #31 - May 10th, 2005 at 11:03am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
*Yurei grabs some old bretzeln (left over from Kris's trip to bavaria) and starts the throw attack on Björn* Kiss


You apparently haven't seen my weapons arsenal yet (unlike some other members), so if I was you I'd be a bit more careful. ^^

Quote:
huh? i always thought ulm was in BW! lol Shocked
half my family lives in ulm and i always thought it's a nice town (mind you, i've never been there and have hardly ever seen my family lol)


Baden-Württemberg...Bavaria...all the same. Stupid dialects, strange habits and peculiar food.
 
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Reply #32 - May 11th, 2005 at 5:57am

Yurei   Offline
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You apparently haven't seen my weapons arsenal yet (unlike some other members), so if I was you I'd be a bit more careful. ^^
bring it on Grin

Quote:
Baden-Württemberg...Bavaria...all the same. Stupid dialects, strange habits and peculiar food.
mhmm...you know, i thought i would come up with a very lengthy counter-arguement for this one until i realised that you're pretty much right Tongue
 

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Reply #33 - May 11th, 2005 at 6:39am
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
stupid gay dialect..can't you just say Guten tag and not GruB dias ??

A.
 
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Reply #34 - May 11th, 2005 at 8:06am

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GruB dias
say what ??? lol
i'm not sure what this is, but it aint a german dialect  Wink
 

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Reply #35 - May 11th, 2005 at 10:04am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
stupid gay dialect..can't you just say Guten tag and not GruB dias ??


If you want to speak to your bud the way you speak to your boss, why not? Roll Eyes
 
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Reply #36 - May 11th, 2005 at 10:29am

Yurei   Offline
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again, "GruB dias" ??? andrew did you mean "Grüß Dich" by any chance? Wink
 

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Reply #37 - May 11th, 2005 at 10:39am
Foxhound-B   Ex Member

 
Quote:
again, "GruB dias" ??? andrew did you mean "Grüß Dich" by any chance? Wink


That's how I interpreted it.
 
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Reply #38 - May 12th, 2005 at 4:04am

Yurei   Offline
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ok, andrew if you meant "grüß dich" then that's not a dialect. it's more like common speech and it does sound much better than the actual proper saying which would  be something like "ich grüße dich" (which sounds so dumb, you would probably get a kick in the balls for it Grin). fact is, today's spoken German is very simplyfied to make it sound more casual when having a conversation with anyone but the most formal people. i know you'll think that's the also the case in english, but i'd say it's a far bigger change in German. textbook german just doesn't sound natural so we tend to leave out or change almost every second word Wink. nothing of this has anything to do with dialect, it's commonly used in "hochdeutsch" Smiley
 

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Reply #39 - May 12th, 2005 at 5:37am
Flt.Lt.Andrew   Ex Member

 
AHHHHHH!
I see now.
I've always thought the text book was a little uptight when it cursed me for saying "Ich bin gut" on friday after noon when fragt "Wie gehts? "

A.
 
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