I think Felix is right-and not just because of the talent of each of the teams. 

In rivalery games like this you can never predict who is gonna win because you basically have to throw out the stats.  Here's an example of a game I went to:

My home town college team (U of Oregon Ducks) have a huge riveralry with the Oregon State Beavers(this game-the "Civil War" has become famous in recent years).  Back during the 1995 season, Oregon went into the game with a 9-2 record-Oregon St. had a 1-9 record.  OSU lead most of the game and Oregon barely won with a late field goal because of an interception-the final score was 12-10.  This is an example of a rivalery game that you can never predict.  Many times games like this occur when one team is supposed to be vastly better than the other but because of the passion in such a game-the underdog wins.  In all games, especially intense rivaleries-any team can win.